Scottsdale Fall Builder Tour September 28
After attending the Scottsdale Fall Builder Tour September 28, thanks to Fidelity Title, CNN Mortgage and all of the builders represented on the tour Ken and I are true believers in the following excerpt from the Rose Law Group article regarding Millennials and Baby Boomers:
Multifamily housing ain’t what it used to be.
The Valley of the Sun — the city of Scottsdale in particular — has become a hotbed for luxury multifamily housing construction with hundreds of new units expected to come to market over the next 12 to 24 months.
Housing data experts at the Cromford Report, which is the premier data trove for local real estate professionals, say portions of northern Tempe, downtown Phoenix and Scottsdale are the heart of the luxury multifamily construction boom.
Sales of condominiums, or townhomes depending on who you ask, are up 77 percent year-to-date in both Maricopa and Pinal counties, numbers show.
Please take a look at some of the photos taken of new condos on our Trolley Tour. What a great way to inform our real estate group about availability in our area. Thanks everyone who sponsored the tour.
Ken and Sharon Lloyd
Equifax Security Breach Update
Last week, we discussed Equifax’s major security breach. Here’s an update:
- Up to 143 million U.S. consumers could be affected. Several inquiries have begun including the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the Federal Trade Commission, the House Financial Services Committee, the Senate Finance Committee, the office of New York Attorney General, and a lawsuit from the state of Massachusetts.
- Equifax has known of a breach since March of this year but announced it on September 7th.
The company claims the breach earlier this year is different than the one just reported. However, sources claim the breach is from the same attackers.
This report is our national and Arizona 2017 Market Report for Mid December
1. Some of the responses to president elect Trump’s surprise victory have been positive.
2. Stock prices rebounded higher with the expectations that tax cuts increased infrastructure spending and reduced regulation will boost long term economic growth.
3. Interest rates have risen, however, as investors are now expecting slightly higher inflation, but with stronger than expected economic outlook, higher opportunity costs. From Wells Fargo Economics and Bloomberg WFRE.
4. Housing affordability is still falling as home prices continue to rise much faster than individual income. This is a risk as the conventional mortgage rates will reduce affordability further.
5. Builders remain optimistic especially in the west and south.. A slightly more upbeat housing forecast mostly reflects shift towards lower priced homebuilding.
6. Recent spike in mortgage rates has already caused refinancing activity to fall sharply. In the past few weeks since Trump was elected investors have raised their expectations for economic growth and inflation. Some prospective buyers may rush to lock in rates. Those buyers in higher priced markets may be forced to delay as larger monthly payments outreach their budgets.
7. While national home prices reached a new high in September, home prices in a 13 of a 20 city index remain below prerecession levels. This index has risen 5.5 percent in the last year. From the 2017 U.S. housing Market Outlook in December 03, 2016
PHOENIX has been chosen as #1 housing market 2017 by Realtor.com
Realtor.com expects housing to see a gain of 5.9 per cent and sales growth of 7.2 per cent.
Arizona should add 81,000 new jobs in 2017 dropping unemployment to 4.8 in that time period. Population growth is expected to stay at about 1.6 %. That is half of our average of 3.2 percent but double the national average.
Arizona’s average wage moved from 85% of the national average wage in 2008 to 96% of the national wage in 2016. More importantly, 2016 is the year that Arizona finally righted its economy to grow jobs first and rooftops second in an article from Phoenix News in 2016.
Please tune in to our January Real Estate Newsletter on Tuesday January 3 for more news on Arizona Real estate.
Per Zillow, the median age of home buyers is now 36, and fully half of home buyers is a Millennial. What is more, almost half of Zillow’s sample wants a new home vs. a resale. The latest Existing Home Sales data from the NAR as much as confirms that first-time buyers have already opened the sluice gates, accounting for 34% of home resales in the month of September, vs. 31% in August, and 30% for all of 2015. The learning for residential developers and home builders to take out of this is not about the broad waves of behavior around homeownership or not. It’s about an entirely new set of decision-support tools and analysis dashboards younger households are working with today to enlighten their pathways vis a vis housing preference, value, and behavior.
Nearly half buying for the first time
First-time buyers, a group that makes up almost half (47 percent) of the buying market, have a median age of 33 and nearly six in 10 are Millennials (56 pe
nt). They spend a median of $200,000 on a home. They are more likely than repeat buyers to be torn between buying and renting, with almost four in 10 seriously considering renting (37 percent, compared to just 12 percent of repeat buyers).
Repeat buyers are older, with a median age of 42. They have a preference for single-family homes over other home types, and pay an average of 18 percent more than first-timers for their home ($235,000 median price). Repeat buyers are slightly less decisive about location, with almost one in five (18 percent) purchasing a home in an area that is outside their initial search criteria, compared to just 14 percent of first-time buyers.
City hit hard by housing crisis makes its comeback
Phoenix’s homeownership rate increased to 63.4% in the second quarter, surpassing the national average from the first time since 2010, according to the Second Quarter 2016 Economic and Single-Family Housing Market Outlook Report for Phoenix released by Ten-X, an online real estate transaction marketplace.
Click to Enlarge
(Source: Ten-X, U.S. Census Bureau)
“Phoenix continues its remarkable recovery from the volatility of the housing market boom and bust cycle, where it was one of the hardest hit cities in the country,” Ten-X Executive Vice President Rick Sharga said.
“The city’s strong underlying economic fundamentals, high employment, growing wages and increasing population, bode well for continued growth in the housing market,” Sharga said.
Existing home sales in the city increased 12.5% from last year to 123,600 during the second quarter, according to the report. This is a new cyclical peak, and passed up the national average for the first time since early 2015.
While home sales are increasing, available inventory remains tight even after an increase of 7.2% from last year. New home construction remained weak, with both housing starts and permits down on a year-over-year basis, and lagging well below historical levels.
Home price appreciation slowed, but continues to increase in the metro. In the second quarter the median home price in Phoenix increased 8.4% from last year to $222,194.
“Compared to other major metropolitan areas, Phoenix real estate remains relatively affordable, even as prices continue to rise,” Sharga said.
|An average of 10,000 baby boomers retire each day, and while some may decide to downsize or relocate, others choose to adapt their homes for enjoyment into their golden years. A large part of aging in place is ensuring that everything is within reach and easy to use. Here are some ideas that can help you prepare to age well in your home.
Add Small, Important Features
Make Thoughtful Renovations
Even if you’re nowhere near retiring, it’s important to make a plan. When it comes to aging in place, it makes sense to have the fixes complete before you need them
A total of 51,434 U.S. single family home and condo sales were completed flips in the second quarter of 2016, according to a new RealtyTrac Q2 2016 U.S. Home Flipping Report. These numbers are up 14 percent from the previous quarter and up 3 percent from a year ago to the highest number of home flips since Q2 2010 – a six-year high.
For the report, a home flip is defined as a property that is sold in an arms-length sale for the second time within a 12-month period based on publicly recorded sales deed data collected by ATTOM Data Solutions in more than 950 counties accounting for more than 80 percent of the U.S. Population.
Homes flipped in Q2 2016 accounted for 5.5 percent of all single family and condo sales during the quarter, down from 6.7 percent of all sales in the first quarter but up from 5.4 percent of all sales in Q2 2015.
A total of 39,775 investors (including both individuals and institutions) completed at least one home flip in Q2 2016, the highest number of home flippers since Q2 2007 – a nine-year high.
“Home flipping is becoming more accessible for smaller operators thanks to an increasingly competitive lending environment with more loan options for real estate investors, who are also benefitting from the historically low mortgage interest rates,” says Daren Blomquist, senior vice president at ATTOM Data Solutions. “That favorable lending environment for flippers has helped to fuel the recent flipping frenzy we’ve seen over the past five quarters.
“We’re starting to see home flipping hit some milestones not seen since prior to the financial crisis, which is somewhat concerning, but there are a couple of important differences in the home flipping of 2016 compared to 2006 when home flipping peaked during the last housing boom,” Blomquist continues. “First, home flippers are realizing a much bigger gross ROI in 2016, averaging 49 percent in the first two quarters compared to an average gross ROI of just 27 percent in 2006. Second, while an increasing number of flippers are financing their purchases, more than two-thirds are still using cash to purchase compared to about one-third using cash to purchase back in 2006.”
Of the 51,434 homes flipped in the second quarter, 68.3 percent were purchased with cash by the flipper, down from 71.1 percent in the previous quarter and down from 69.6 percent in Q2 2015 to the lowest level since Q3 2008 – a nearly eight-year low.
“The single family real estate sector is becoming more institutional, which means that more financing is available and more attractive,” says Varun V. Pathria, CEO at Asset Avenue, a company that provides investor rehab, bridge and rental loans. “The entrepreneurs are also becoming savvier and as a result are looking to leverage their capital more. There continues to be a fringe group of people who enter and exit the sector based upon opportunity and those people are hard to predict but generally look to take maximum leverage.”
Pathria noted that 79 percent of the rehab loans Asset Avenue has originated so far in 2016 have been purchase loans while the remaining 21 percent have been refinance – typically an investor who purchases with cash at a foreclosure auction or some other auction and subsequently finances the property.
Gross Flipping Profit Increases to New All-Time High
Homes flipped in Q2 2016 sold on average for $189,000, $62,000 more than the average purchase price of $127,000, according to ATTOM data. That $62,000 average gross profit was up from an average $59,250 gross flipping profit in the previous quarter and up from an average $57,900 gross flipping profit in Q2 2015 to the highest average gross flipping profit since Q1 2000, the earliest quarter tracked in the report.
The average loan amount for rehab loans originated by AssetAvenue so far in 2016 was $193,786, according to CEO Pathria.
The $62,000 average gross flipping profit represented an average 48.8 percent return on the original purchase price, down from a 49.3 percent average gross flipping ROI in the previous quarter but up from a 47.5 percent average gross flipping ROI in Q2 2015.
Average Days to Flip at 10-Year High
Homes flipped in Q2 2016 took an average of 185 days to flip, up from 180 days from the previous quarter and up from 182 days in Q2 2015 to the highest level since Q2 2006 – a 10-year high.
Among 100 metropolitan statistical areas with at least 90 home flips in Q2 2016, those with the longest average time to flip were Ogden-Clearfield, Utah (229 days); Naples, Fla. (222 days); Punta Gorda, Fla. (212 days); Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, Fla. (206 days); and Pensacola, Fla. (206 days).
Markets with Highest Home Flipping Rate
Among 100 metropolitan statistical areas with at least 90 homes flipped in Q2 2016, those with the highest flipping rate were Memphis (11.1 percent); Visalia-Porterville, Calif. (10.1 percent), Tampa (10.0 percent); York-Hanover, Penn. (9.7 percent); and Mobile, Ala. (9.6 percent).
Other metro areas in the top 10 for the highest flipping rate in Q2 2016 were Fresno, Calif. (9.5 percent); Lakeland-Winter Haven, Fla. (9.5 percent); Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, Fla. (9.4 percent); and Clarksville, Tenn. (9.3 percent).
Along with Memphis and Tampa, major markets with a population of at least 1 million where the Q2 2016 flipping rate was above 7 percent were Miami, Orlando, Baltimore, New Orleans, Phoenix, Jacksonville, Florida, Nashville, and Las Vegas.
Markets with Highest Gross Flipping Profits
Among the 100 metropolitan statistical areas with at least 90 home flips in Q2 2016, those with the highest gross ROI for homes flipped in Q2 2016 were Pittsburgh (133.3 percent), Allentown, Pa. (117.9 percent); New Orleans (111.5 percent); Cleveland (102.6 percent); and Philadelphia (98.9 percent).
There were nine metro areas where the average gross flipping profit in Q2 2016 was more than $100,000: San Jose, Calif. ($161,000); San Francisco ($146,000); Los Angeles ($125,000); New York ($124,160); San Diego ($111,250); Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, Calif. ($110,000); Baltimore ($105,000); Washington, D.C. ($104,500); and Seattle ($102,900).
Thirty-five percent of all homes flipped in Q2 2016 were sold by the flipper for between $100,000 and $200,000, the biggest share of any price range, but the biggest year-over-year increase in terms of price range was homes flipped in the $200,000 to $300,000 range – up 10 percent from a year ago.
Homes flipped for more than $5 million yielded the highest average gross ROI (73 percent), followed by the $50,000 to $100,000 price range (58 percent) and the $100,000 to $200,000 price range (58 percent).
Homes that were flipped in Q2 2016 were purchased by the flipper at a 25.7 percent discount below full “after repair” market value on average and sold by the flipper for a 9.2 percent premium above market value on average.
Maintaining a home, especially an older one, can be expensive – in fact, experts say homeowners should be prepared to spend roughly 1 percent of their home’s value every year on maintenance.
The good news is, you can save on maintenance by completing simple tasks yourself. According to the experts at Underwriters, Inc. these include:
Cleaning the Gutters – To prevent costly damage to your home’s foundation, landscaping and siding, remove debris and leaves from the gutters at least twice a year. Don’t forget gloves and eye protection!
Open Garage Doors Manually – Don’t call a garage technician the next time your power’s out – simply locate the (usually red) cord, suspended from the ceiling-mounted operator, in your garage, and pull it to disconnect the cord from the motor.
Removing Stripped Screws – Avoid causing more damage when screws slip from a screwdriver. Place a rubber band or piece of steel wool over the screw and then try to remove it – if that method fails, use a screw extractor.
Repairing a Leaky Faucet – Leaks can cost hundreds in wasted water. Before you call a plumber, try DIY-ing by shutting off the main water supply, removing the faucet’s knobs, and checking the washers, stems and O-rings for signs of damage. Take these pieces to the hardware store to find exact replacements.
Stop a Running Toilet – Another plumber job you can do yourself! Remove the lid to the tank behind the toilet, and check the flush lever, rubber flapper, lift chain, float ball, pump and overflow tube. A running toilet usually requires just a simple adjustment or replacement to fix.
If you can master these essential homeowner skills, you’ll not only save money on maintenance, but also the expense of more costly fixes in the future.